. Question 32 (2 points) Given that 8 employees have the following Promotion possibilities: Lower, Middle-A, Middle-B, Upper-C, Upper-B, Upper-A, Supervisor, Executive, Manager, AVP, SVP, VP, Presid...
BonesNoBones.csv: "Date","BonesDay","Day_of_Week","Weather_NYC" "11/11/2021","No Bones Day","Thursday","Cloudy" "11/09/2021","Bones Day","Tuesday","Sunny" "11/08/2021","Bones Day","Monday","Sunny" "11...
BonesNoBones.csv: "Date","BonesDay","Day_of_Week","Weather_NYC" "11/11/2021","No Bones Day","Thursday","Cloudy" "11/09/2021","Bones Day","Tuesday","Sunny" "11/08/2021","Bones Day","Monday","Sunny" "11...
BonesNoBones.csv: "Date","BonesDay","Day_of_Week","Weather_NYC" "11/11/2021","No Bones Day","Thursday","Cloudy" "11/09/2021","Bones Day","Tuesday","Sunny" "11/08/2021","Bones Day","Monday","Sunny" "11...
BonesNoBones.csv: "Date","BonesDay","Day_of_Week","Weather_NYC" "11/11/2021","No Bones Day","Thursday","Cloudy" "11/09/2021","Bones Day","Tuesday","Sunny" "11/08/2021","Bones Day","Monday","Sunny" "11...
BonesNoBones.csv: "Date","BonesDay","Day_of_Week","Weather_NYC" "11/11/2021","No Bones Day","Thursday","Cloudy" "11/09/2021","Bones Day","Tuesday","Sunny" "11/08/2021","Bones Day","Monday","Sunny" "11...
Quality of managers decision making is important for 2 reasons
1. quality of decision making directly effects career opportunities, rewards, and job satisfaction
2. managerial decisions contribute to the success or failure of an organization
identifying and choosing solutions that lead to a desired result
2 fundamental models of decision making
1. the rational model
2. nonrational model
the rational decision making model
logical 4 step approach to decision making
1. identifying the problem
2. generating alternative solutions
3. selecting a solution
4. implementing and evaluating the solution
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identifying the problem (step 1 of rational decision making model)
problem - exist when the actual
situation and the desired situation differ
3 methods of identifying the problem
1. use historical cues, assuming the past is a predictor for the future
2. Use projections to estimate what will happen (forecast)
3. rely on perceptions of others
Past Present & Future
generating alternative solutions (step 2 of rational decision making process)
- For routine decisions, alternatives are readily available through decision rules
- ex - paying bills the same day every month
- But, if not a routine decision, managers must creatively generate alternative solutions
Selecting a solution (step 3 of rational decision making process)
- want to maximize the expected utility of an outcome
- ppl vary in their preferences for safety or risk (men r more risky)
- Ethics should be considered
evaluating alternative solutions assumes they can be judged according
to the same criteria
1. Assume valid criteria exist
2. Each alternative can be compared to these criteria
3. Decision makers actually uses the criteria
After everything, pick a solution.
Implementing and evaluating the solution (step 4 of rational model)
After
solution is implemented, the evaluation phase is used to evaluate its effectiveness
choosing the best possible solution
Summarizing the rational model
- The rational model is based on the premise that managers optimize when they make decisions
- However noted by Herbert
Simon (nobel prize winner)
"the assumption of perfect rationality are contrary to fact... they do not even remotely describe the processes that human beings use for making decisions in complex situations."
3 benefits of trying to follow a rational process as much as possible
1. the quality of decisions may be enhanced
2. it makes
the reasoning behind a decision transparent and available to scrutiny
3. If make public, it discourage the decider from action on suspect considerations
decision models that explain how decisions are actually made
- Simons normative model
- The garbage can model
the decision process is guided by a decision makers
bounded rationality
constraints that restrict decision making
- limitations make it difficult to identify all possible alternative solutions which causes decision makers to satisfice
choosing a solution that meets a minimum standard of acceptance
most
frequent causes of poor decisions
- poorly defined processes and practices
- unclear company vision, mission and goals
- unwillingness of leaders to take responsibility
- lack of reliable, timely information
decision making is sloppy and haphazard - decisions result from a complex interaction between four independent streams of events: problems, solutions,
participants, and choice opportunities
Implications of Garbage can model
1. many decisions r made by oversight or by salient opportunities
2. Political motives frequently guide the process by which participants make decisions
3. the decision making process is sensitive to load - as the # of problems increase, relative to the amount
of time available to solve them, problems r less likely to be solved.
4. Important problems r more likely to be solved than unimportant ones b/c r more salient
4 decision environments (based on the challenges facing today's organizations)
1. Simple
2. complicated
3. complex
4. chaotic
simple decision environment
1. Simple - clear cause and effect relationships and best answer can be agreed upon (use rational model)
complicated decision making process
2. complicated - clear cause and effect relationship but more than 1 solution may be effective (use rational model w/ investigation and analysis of all options
complex decision making process
3. complex - there is 1 right answer but many unknowns--> test options and look for creative solutions
chaotic decision making process
4. chaotic - cause and effect relationships are changing so fast that no patterns emerge--> 1st establish order & then manage the problem
- (disorder: those involved cannot agree on the context--> see aspects of situation in separate context and address each)
- ppl make a variety of mistakes when making decisions
- these
mistakes r generally associated with biases that occur when we use judgmental heuristics
rules of thumb or shortcuts that ppl use to reduce information processing demands
or
Judgmental heuristics are principles or methods by which one makes
assessments or judgments of probability simpler.
Types of judgmental heuristics
1. Availability Heuristic
2. Representativeness heuristic
3. Confirmation bias
4. Anchoring bias
5. Overconfidence bias
6. Hindsight bias
7. Framing Bias
8. Escalation of Commitment
sticking to an ineffective course of action too long
-investigation shows that ppl who r insightful about their feelings r better @ watching out for decision making
biases
- Emotional intelligence is a valuable complement to rational thinking
Ways to reduce escalation of commitment
- set minimum targets for performance; compare performance against these targets
- rotate managers in key positions through a project
- encourage decision makers to be less ego-involved in a project
-
Make decision makers aware of the cost of persistence
dynamics of decision making
decision making is part science and part art
4 dynamics of decision making
1. Knowledge
Management
2. general decision making styles
3. intuition in decision making
4. creativity
combination of how individuals perceive and respond to information
Decision making styles vary along 2 different dimensions
1.
Value orientation: reflects the extent
to which an individual focuses on either task or technical concerns for ppl & social concerns when making decisions
2.
: extent to which a person has a high for structure or control in his life
4 styles of decision-making
1.
Directive: low tolerance for ambiguity and oriented
toward task/technical concerns
2.
higher tolerance for ambiguity $ has the tendency to over analyze a situation
3.
high tolerance for ambiguity & focus on ppl/ social issues
4.
: low tolerance for ambiguity & high tolerance for ppl/social issues
Decision making styles: practical implications
- DMS's vary across occupations, job level, and countries
- very few pl have only 1 dominant DMS
you can use knowledge & decision making styles in 3 ways
1. knowledge of styles helps you understand yourself
2. you can increase your ability to influence others by being aware of
styles
3. knowledge & styles give you an awareness of how ppl can have the same information & arrive at different decisions
Intuition of decision making
intuition
: capacity for attaining knowledge or understanding w/o rational thought or logic (a hunch or gut feeling)
judgement that is based on a subconscious integration of information stored in memory
choice based on familiar situation and a partially subconscious application of previously learned info related to that situation
Expertise
: an individuals combined explicit & tacit know regarding an object, person, situation, or decision opportunity
feelings: the automatic, underlying effect one experiences in response to an object, person, situation, or decision opportunity
process of using intelligence, imagination, and skill to develop a new or novel product, object, process, or thought
3 broad types of creativity
1. creation -
create something new
2. synthesis - combine or synthesize things
3. modification - improve or modify things
5 stages underlying the creative process
1. preparation
2. concentration
3. incubation
4. illumination
5. verification
- research shows that
creativity can be enhanced by effectively managing the creativity process and by fostering a positive and supportive work environment
avoid these creativity/ innovation killers
1. Short-term focus
2. lack of time, resources, or staff
3. leadership expects payoff sooner than is realistic
4. managers incentives r not structured to
reward innovation
5. lack of systematic innovation process
Issues associated with group decision making
- group involvement
- advantages & disadvantages in group aided decision making
- group problem solving techniques
Group
involvement in decision making
- group innovativeness is related to minority dissent & a groups level of participation in decision making
- the quality of group decision making varies across groups
extent to which group members feel comfortable disagreeing with other group members
to be effective, groups should...
- develop a clear understanding of the decision situation
- develop a clear understanding for the requirements for an effective choice
- thoroughly and accurately assess the positive quality of alternative solutions
- thoroughly and accurately assess the negative qualities of alternative solutions
research results for group-aided decision making
- research indicates that group decision making was generally qualitatively & quantitatively superior to the performance of the average individual
practical contingency recommendations
- groups can be less effective than individuals
- groups were more confident about their judgement than individuals
- the larger the group the poorer the decision quality
- decision-making accuracy was higher when groups knew a great deal about the issues & group leaders possessed the ability to effectively evaluate the group members opinions & judgements
-the composition of a group affects its decision making process and ultimately performance
Group problem solving techniques: Consensus
Consensus- presenting opinions and gaining agreement to support a decision
- Do's: Use active listening skills, involve as many members as possible, seek out reasons for arguments & dig for facts
- Dont's: No horse-trading, vote or agree just to avoid "rocking the boat"
process to generate a quantity of ideas
1. Defer Judgement
2. Build on the ideas of others
3. encourage wild ideas
4. go for quantity over quality
5. be visual
6. stay focused on the topic
7. one conversation at a time
Group problem solving techniques: Nominal Group
Technique
Nominal group technique - process to generate ideas and evaluate solutions
Group problem solving techniques: Delphi technique
Delphi technique- process to generate ideas from physically dispersed experts
Group problem solving techniques: computer aided decision making
computer aided decision making- reduces consensus roadblocks while collecting more information in a shorter period of time
ask participants to answer predetermined questions on electric keypads
r conducted in special facilities equipped with individual workstations that are networked to each other