What is the difference between the unemployment rate and the real unemployment rate?

Friday’s unemployment rate of 5.2% for August is probably an undercount of the number of out-of-work people in the United States.

Under the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ way of measuring unemployment, those who are out of work and no longer looking for a job are not counted as unemployed, so they do not count in the headline rate. But many of those workers would in fact welcome the chance to work, and the bureau does track them.

When those workers are included, that rate, which we call the “real” unemployment rate, is 8.4%. And with federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance set to expire on Sept. 6, that will only add more pressure on those out of work.

When those who are not in the labor force but want a job are included, the “real” unemployment rate is 8.4%.

Another measure of the jobless rate, the U6 underemployment rate, counts those who are only marginally attached to the labor force and are insufficiently employed. That figure stands at 8.8%, according to the bureau.

In our estimation, the decision to eliminate the additional federal benefits was made in haste, and in retrospect was a policy error. Too many assumed that the pandemic was over. Now, with the pandemic resurgent, this is not the time for reduced jobless benefits as hiring slows.

What is the difference between the unemployment rate and the real unemployment rate?

The Federal Reserve should factor in this removal of federal benefits when it considers paring back its monthly asset purchases of $120 billion. The elimination of the benefits underscores our call for a November announcement and December start to easing those asset purchases. September, in our view, would be too soon to kick off the process.

What’s clear is that the discouraging 235,000-job increase in August, down from an upwardly revised 1.053 million increase in July, highlights the enormity of the task ahead of us.

Not only do we need to restore the labor force back to pre-pandemic levels, but the economy must also find a way to include those who have become discouraged and have technically been dropped out of the labor force.

This means making it possible for households to meet both their family and work obligations, and to educate the work force to meet the demands of the new economy.

For more information on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting midsize businesses, please visit the RSM Coronavirus Resource Center.

What is the difference between the unemployment rate and the real unemployment rate?

About Joseph Brusuelas

@JoeBrusuelas

Joe Brusuelas, “chief economist to the middle market,” is the preeminent voice championing issues and policies facing midsize companies in the United States and around the world. An award-winning economist, Brusuelas has more than 20 years’ experience analyzing U.S. monetary policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, international finance, economic indicators and the condition of the U.S. consumer.

A member of the Wall Street Journal’s forecasting panel and the UCLA Anderson School of Management's Board of Directors, Brusuelas regularly briefs members of Congress and other senior officials regarding the impacts of federal policy on the middle market and the factors by which middle market executives make business decisions. He also frequently offers his insights on the U.S., Canadian and global economies in the financial media. In 2020, he was named one of the 100 most influential economists by Richtopia.

Before joining RSM in 2014, Brusuelas spent four years as a senior economist at Bloomberg L.P. and the Bloomberg Briefs newsletter group, where he co-founded the award-winning Bloomberg Economic Brief. Earlier in his career, he was a director at Moody's Analytics covering the U.S. and global economies for the Dismal Scientist website. He also served as chief economist at Merk Investments L.L.C. and chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal.

Date(s)% BLS Unemployment
11/1/2017 8.0%
10/1/2017 7.9%
09/1/2017 8.3%
08/1/2017 8.6%
07/1/2017 8.6%
06/1/2017 8.6%
05/1/2017 8.4%
04/1/2017 8.6%
03/1/2017 8.9%
02/1/2017 9.2%

Widely reported unemployment metrics in the U.S. do not accurately represent the reality of joblessness in America.

For example, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does not count a person who desires work as unemployed if he or she is not working and has stopped looking for work over the past four weeks. Similarly, the BLS does not count someone as unemployed if he or she is, for instance, an out-of-work engineer, construction worker or retail manager who performs a minimum of one hour of work a week and receives at least $20 in compensation.

To measure unemployment, Gallup recommends using what we call the "Real Unemployment" metric from the BLS -- which combines those who are unemployed, underemployed and marginally attached to the workforce.

Here is one of Gallup's most important discoveries since its founding in 1935: What the whole world wants is a good job.

Gallup defines a "good job" as working 30 or more hours per week for an employer that provides a regular paycheck. Good jobs are essential to a thriving economy, a growing middle class, a booming entrepreneurial sector and, most importantly, human development. Creating as many good jobs as possible should be the No. 1 priority for business and government leaders everywhere.


Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/189068/bls-unemployment-seasonally-adjusted.aspx.aspx
Gallup World Headquarters, 901 F Street, Washington, D.C., 20001, U.S.A
+1 202.715.3030

What is the difference between the actual unemployment rate and the natural rate of unemployment?

The actual unemployment rate is the rate that swings in response to cyclical economic situations, fluctuating around the natural unemployment rate. At the time of recession, the real unemployment rate rises beyond the natural rate, whereas when the economy is thriving, it falls below it.

What is the relationship between the real interest rate and unemployment?

To begin, higher interest rates tend to lower consumer spending and business investments, leading to a reduction in hiring and an increase in unemployment. The heightened cost of borrowing will also have a direct impact on workers' personal finances.