Which level of research focuses on larger social entities such as the nation?

Modeling the micro-macro link: Understanding macro-level outcomes using randomization tests on micro-level data

Author links open overlay panelJacobDijkstraaPersonEnvelopeLoesBoumanbDieko M.BakkeraMarcel A.L.M.van Assenc

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Abstract

Analytical sociology explains macro-level outcomes by referring to micro-level behaviors, and its hypotheses thus take macro-level entities (e.g. groups) as their units of analysis. The statistical analysis of these macro-level units is problematic, since macro units are often few in number, leading to low statistical power. Additionally, micro-level processes take place within macro units, but tests on macro-level units cannot adequately deal with these processes. Consequently, much analytical sociology focuses on testing micro-level predictions. We propose a better alternative; a method to test macro hypotheses on micro data, using randomization tests. The advantages of our method are (i) increased statistical power, (ii) possibilities to control for micro covariates, and (iii) the possibility to test macro hypotheses without macro units. We provide a heuristic description of our method and illustrate it with data from a published study. Data and R-scripts for this paper are available in the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/scfx3/).

Introduction

Analytical sociologists share James Coleman's outlook that “[t]he principal task of the social sciences lies in the explanation of social phenomena, not the behavior of single individuals” (1990, p.2). Looking at empirical research in sociology, however, it is clear that while “[s]ocial theory continues to be about the functioning of social systems of behavior, (…) empirical research is often concerned with explaining individual behavior” (Coleman, 1990, p.1). The analysis of individual behavior is necessary for a complete understanding of systemic outcomes (a position known as ‘methodological individualism’). As analytical sociologists stress, however, it is not generally sufficient for this understanding (e.g., Boudon, 1979). The reason for the lack of sufficiency lies in the potentially complex ways in which individual behaviors interact to produce macro-level outcomes. The explanation of a macro-level outcome in terms of its generative interdependent individual actions, is variously known as the ‘micro-macro link approach’ or the ‘social mechanisms approach’. In the words of Hedström (2005, p.24) “[t]he core idea behind the mechanism approach is that we explain not by evoking universal laws, or by identifying statistically relevant factors, but by specifying mechanisms that show how phenomena are brought about.” Hedström offers a definition of mechanisms as consisting of “(…) a constellation of entities and activities that are organized such that they regularly bring about a particular type of outcome” (2005, p.25).

The potential complexity of social mechanisms has long been acknowledged (e.g. Boudon, 1977; Lindenberg, 1977). Coleman (1990, p.22), for instance, stresses that the macro-level outcomes to be analyzed frequently involve true interdependencies of individual behavior, going beyond mere “aggregation”. Hedström (2005, p.26) similarly emphasizes that “(…) the same entities (individuals actors) strung together in different ways can be expected to regularly bring about different types of outcomes”, suggesting that the “stringing together” (i.e., the way in which individual actions interact) is an important factor determining macro outcomes. Obviously, not all social mechanisms are complex in this sense, and ‘easy cases’ can be found where simple aggregation explains macro outcomes. Generally, however, it is safe to say that analytical sociology has a lot to offer when explaining macro-level outcomes produced by interdependent individual actions. For the explanation of such phenomena, we “(…) have to look at the system of interaction between individuals and their environment, that is, between individuals and other individuals or between individuals and the collectivity” (Schelling, 2006, p.14). To understand this system of interaction, analytical sociological theories of social mechanisms are comprised of at least two parts: (i) a theory of individual behavior (the “micro foundations”, cf. Wittek et al., 2013, p.5), and (ii) a theory of how individual behaviors combine, under specific rules (i.e., norms, institutions), to produce macro-level outcomes (Coleman, 1990).

The focus on social mechanisms implies that in empirical research at least some of the hypotheses (and according to analytical sociologists the quintessentially “sociological” among them) take human collectivities such as groups, teams or societies as their units of analysis. This is true for most studies in the domain of ‘experimental behavioral game theory’ (e.g., Camerer, 2011), on which we focus in this paper and in which groups of participants make strategic choices. The interest of such games (e.g., public good games, coordination games, volunteer's dilemmas, etc.) lies not only in the behavior of individuals, but also in the group-level outcomes (e.g., whether the group's public good is successfully produced). Treating experimental groups as the unit of analysis for at least some hypotheses seems to imply that a great many participants must be recruited and tested, which is potentially very onerous, as statistical power of tests using macro-level outcomes is generally low with a small number of groups. Therefore, most studies from this domain focus on testing the micro-level hypotheses implied by their theories, which increases statistical power because of a larger number of observations.

Focusing on the explanation of individual behavior works at least to some extent in the simple cases in which the macro-level outcome is an aggregate (such as a count, a sum or a mean) of individual actions (or their consequences), for which a sampling distribution can be derived. For instance, in an experimental linear public goods game with several treatments (e.g. Fehr and Gachter, 2000), mean contributions to the public good by participants can be computed per treatment, and treatments can be statistically compared with regard to this mean. But even in this simple case the researcher has very little information about the sampling distributions of macro-level explananda (e.g., total contribution at the group level) for different treatments, due to the low number of groups.

From an analytical sociology perspective, testing only individual-level hypotheses fails altogether when the macro-level outcome depends on interdependent individual actions in more complex ways. In such cases, the sampling distribution of aggregated individual behavior (in the sense of counts, sums or means) does not equal the sampling distribution of the macro-level outcome. Moreover, the latter distribution (which is necessary for statistical inference concerning macro-level hypotheses) frequently cannot be analytically derived. For instance, even in a simple step-level public goods game (e.g., Kerr, 1992, Van de Kragt et al., 1983), where the public good is produced if and only if at least a certain minimum number of group members contribute, a higher number of contributors across all groups does not imply a higher number of ‘successful’ groups (the relevant macro-level outcome). The number of successful groups critically depends on the distribution of contributors across groups, and the aggregate sum of contributors contains limited information about this. Hence, one is again left with taking observed groups as the unit of analysis for inference about the macro-level outcome, resulting in low statistical power unless a considerable number of groups is available.

In this paper we offer an alternative to the standard solutions employed in experimental research of either exclusively focusing on individual behavior or settling for low power tests and propose and illustrate a methodology allowing statistical inference concerning the micro-macro link central to analytical sociology (Buskens et al., 2014; Hedström and Swedberg, 1998), using micro-level data only. Our method allows statistically more powerful inferences about social mechanisms by exploiting all the information about macro-level outcomes the data contain. Since we make all the data and R-scripts used for this research publicly available on the Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/scfx3/), our methodology can be employed by any researcher whose data have a certain structure and whose data and theory meet two assumptions.

The data structure to which our method applies is as follows. A set of N micro-level units (typically, (the behavior of) individual people) is distributed across T treatments, with each micro unit assigned to a single treatment (i.e., in a between-subjects design). In the remainder we will refer to such a distribution of micro units across treatments as a permutation. Within each treatment t the micro units are distributed across Kt groups, with each micro unit assigned to a unique group. In the remainder we will refer to such a set of groupings (one per treatment t) as a partition. The two core assumptions of our methodology are that (i) the micro-macro link or social mechanism is formally expressible as a function of the micro-level data (‘individual behavior’), and (ii) the macro-level units (‘groups’) in the data are randomly formed and do not lead to statistically dependent individual behavior (i.e., individual behavior is statistically independent of group membership).1

Data from behavioral game theory experiments often satisfy these two assumptions. First, such research typically involves explicit ‘rules’ mapping individual behaviors to group outcomes and these rules thus codify the experiment's social mechanism. Meeting this assumption forces the researcher to explicate the social mechanism at the core of her theory. Quite apart from statistical inference, this assumption is a conditio sine qua non for analytical sociology. Second, experimental macro units (such as groups or networks) are very often artificially created in the laboratory, and hence do not involve many of the statistical dependencies real-world groups have. This renders the second assumption more plausible. Note, however, that experiments involving communication between individuals before the behavior of interest almost inevitably violate the second assumption. This is not to say our method is principally unsuited to observational research, but the purest illustrations are likely found in experiments. Therefore, we draw our two examples from a published experimental paper in the field of experimental behavioral game theory. The paper used for illustration is the Dijkstra and Bakker (2017) publication on Step-level Public Goods (SPG).

In the next section we state the purpose of our method and give its outline in terms of six steps that have to be completed in order to apply it. The subsequent section illustrates with two examples. A conclusion and discussion section closes the paper.

Section snippets

Purpose and outline of our method

The purpose of our paper is to introduce and illustrate a statistical method enabling inferences on the social mechanism or micro-macro link in applications, by deriving the sampling distributions of relevant macro-level explananda using micro-level data in those applications. Our method is based on the principle of randomization tests (e.g., Edgington, 1995) to compare different conditions under which the social mechanism under consideration is predicted to yield different macro-level outcomes

Two examples

To facilitate the understanding of our method, we draw two examples from the Dijkstra and Bakker (2017) publication on Step-level Public Goods (SPG), from this journal.

Some theoretical and empirical background for our two examples

Many researchers regard the cooperative solution of adaptive problems (such as hunting or defense) as a key driver of human evolution (e.g., Cosmides and Tooby, 1992; Kiyonari et al., 2000; Fehr and Fischbacher, 2003; Nowak, 2006; Mesterton-Gibbons and Dugatkin, 1992;

Discussion and conclusion

Analytical sociology is about explaining macro-level phenomena or relations by referring to micro-level behavior and interactions. This implies that analytical sociology hypotheses take macro-level entities (such as groups, teams, organizations, or communities) as their units of analysis. The statistical analysis of these macro-level units, however, is problematic. In the first place, in empirical research macro units are often few in number because they are expensive to investigate in their

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      Which level of research focuses on larger social entities such as a nation?

      At the macro level, sociologists examine social structures and institutions. Research at the macro level examines large-scale patterns.

      What is a level of analysis that involves the study of large

      Macrosociology is a large-scale approach to sociology, emphasizing the analysis of social systems and populations at the structural level, often at a necessarily high level of theoretical abstraction.

      Which specific form level of social analysis would study large groups and societies?

      Macro-level sociology looks at large-scale social processes, such as social stability and change. Micro-level sociology looks at small-scale interactions between individuals, such as conversation or group dynamics.

      What does meso level mean?

      Meso level In general, a meso-level analysis indicates a population size that falls between the micro and macro levels, such as a community or an organization. However, meso level may also refer to analyses that are specifically designed to reveal connections between micro and macro levels.