How has the rate of death due to infectious disease changed in the last 100 years?

Figure 1: U.S. Mortality and Life Expectancy, 1900-2013

Death rate is age-adjusted to the 2000 Census population age distribution.

Source: Centers for Disease Control/National Center for Health Statistics.

Figure 2: Mortality from Major Cardiovascular Diseases (Rate per 100,000 Population)

Death rate is age-adjusted to the 2000 Census population age distribution.

Source: Centers for Disease Control/National Center for Health Statistics.

Figure 3: Age Distribution of the Decline in Mortality (Percent of Total Change)

Death rates are age-adjusted to the Census population age distribution in the first year of each period.

Source: Centers for Disease Control/National Center for Health Statistics.

Figure 4: Life Expectancy at Age 25 by Sex, Race, and Years of Completed Education, 2008

"White" and "Black" refer to the non-Hispanic population.

Source: S. Jay Olshansky, Toni Antonucci, Lisa Berkman, et al., “Differences In Life Expectancy Due To Race And Educational Differences Are Widening, And Many May Not Catch Up,” Health Affairs, 31:8, pp. 1803–13.

Table 1. Projections of Mortality Decline and Life Expectancy at Birth15


Average annual rate of mortality declineLife expectancy at birth
20602090
2015 Social Security Trustees Report 0.8 83.7 85.9
2015 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods 1.0 - 88.3
2011 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods* 1.3 85.8 88.7
Congressional Budget Office (2014) 1.2 85.2 -
Census Bureau (2014) - 85.6 -
Bongaarts (2006), extended - 85.8 -
Lee and Carter (1992) - 85.5 -


Death rates are age-adjusted to the 2010 Census population age distribution.

*Value for life expectancy in 2090 is for 2086.

- = not available.

Year,Age-adjusted death rate,Life expectancy at birth
1900,2518.00,47.3
1901,2473.10,49.1
1902,2301.30,51.5
1903,2379.00,50.5
1904,2502.50,47.6
1905,2423.70,48.7
1906,2399.00,48.7
1907,2494.40,47.6
1908,2298.90,51.1
1909,2249.20,52.1
1910,2317.20,50
1911,2245.40,52.6
1912,2211.70,53.5
1913,2206.50,52.5
1914,2149.30,54.2
1915,2174.80,54.5
1916,2266.60,51.7
1917,2275.90,50.9
1918,2541.60,39.1
1919,2057.20,54.7
1920,2147.10,54.1
1921,1958.20,60.8
1922,2049.50,59.6
1923,2141.40,57.2
1924,2038.00,59.7
1925,2068.70,59
1926,2146.20,56.7
1927,1989.50,60.4
1928,2124.60,56.8
1929,2081.20,57.1
1930,1943.80,59.7
1931,1895.10,61.1
1932,1897.10,62.1
1933,1850.10,63.3
1934,1888.20,61.1
1935,1860.10,61.7
1936,1963.70,58.5
1937,1882.60,60
1938,1764.30,63.5
1939,1766.90,63.7
1940,1785.00,62.9
1941,1694.60,64.8
1942,1635.80,66.2
1943,1702.40,63.3
1944,1618.50,65.2
1945,1575.40,65.9
1946,1529.70,66.7
1947,1532.00,66.8
1948,1501.70,67.2
1949,1457.30,68
1950,1446.00,68.2
1951,1423.50,68.4
1952,1394.60,68.6
1953,1385.60,68.8
1954,1314.80,69.6
1955,1332.30,69.6
1956,1333.70,69.7
1957,1356.70,69.5
1958,1343.40,69.6
1959,1317.30,69.9
1960,1339.20,69.7
1961,1298.80,70.2
1962,1323.60,70.1
1963,1346.30,69.9
1964,1303.80,70.2
1965,1306.50,70.2
1966,1309.00,70.2
1967,1274.00,70.5
1968,1304.50,70.2
1969,1271.80,70.5
1970,1222.60,70.8
1971,1213.10,71.1
1972,1214.80,71.2
1973,1201.20,71.4
1974,1151.80,72
1975,1094.40,72.6
1976,1084.10,72.9
1977,1051.60,73.3
1978,1043.70,73.5
1979,1010.60,73.9
1980,1038.70,73.7
1981,1007.00,74.1
1982,984.90,74.5
1983,990.00,74.6
1984,982.10,74.7
1985,987.80,74.7
1986,978.40,74.7
1987,969.60,74.9
1988,975.10,74.9
1989,949.90,75.1
1990,938.00,75.4
1991,921.90,75.5
1992,905.30,75.8
1993,925.80,75.5
1994,913.20,75.7
1995,909.50,75.8
1996,893.70,76.1
1997,877.70,76.5
1998,870.10,76.7
1999,875.60,76.7
2000,869.00,76.8
2001,858.80,77
2002,855.90,77
2003,843.50,77.6
2004,813.70,77.5
2005,815.00,77.6
2006,791.80,77.8
2007,775.30,78.1
2008,774.90,78.2
2009,749.60,78.5
2010,747.00,78.7
2011,741.30,78.7
2012,732.80,78.8
2013,731.90,78.8
Year,Cerebrovascular disease,Diseases of the heart
1900,244.2,265.4
1901,243.6,272.6
1902,237.8,285.2
1903,244.6,304.5
1904,255.2,331.5
1905,247.3,327.8
1906,245.9,325.5
1907,261.8,356.5
1908,239,328.6
1909,237.5,329.2
1910,238.5,345.1
1911,230.2,341.8
1912,228.7,346.0
1913,226.9,337.9
1914,231.3,346.4
1915,234.5,361.5
1916,235.7,373.3
1917,238.2,377.9
1918,228,366.2
1919,225.6,335.7
1920,238.5,375.0
1921,230.1,366.2
1922,238.9,392.1
1923,245.6,410.3
1924,246.4,410.5
1925,227.9,433.8
1926,228.2,465.7
1927,216.3,448.8
1928,223.4,478.9
1929,213.3,476.2
1930,203.9,467.9
1931,195,459.6
1932,194.4,482.8
1933,185,483.8
1934,184.5,502.9
1935,181.2,506.8
1936,189.8,546.2
1937,176.6,538.8
1938,171.4,528.9
1939,173.2,534.5
1940,177.2,558.5
1941,169.4,537.9
1942,166.8,531.7
1943,173.3,567.5
1944,164.4,541.1
1945,166.7,533.2
1946,158.8,527.7
1947,161.3,552.5
1948,157.4,549.0
1949,176.2,581.0
1950,180.7,588.8
1951,181.4,577.9
1952,180.2,568.8
1953,179.2,570.1
1954,173.4,544.6
1955,177.3,556.7
1956,177.4,560.6
1957,183,568.5
1958,183,563.6
1959,179,552.1
1960,177.9,559.0
1961,173.1,545.3
1962,174,556.9
1963,173.9,563.4
1964,167,543.3
1965,166.4,542.5
1966,165.8,541.2
1967,159.3,524.7
1968,162.5,531.0
1969,155.4,516.8
1970,147.7,492.7
1971,147.6,492.9
1972,147.3,490.2
1973,145.2,482.0
1974,136.8,458.8
1975,123.5,431.2
1976,117.4,426.9
1977,110.4,413.7
1978,103.7,409.9
1979,97.3,401.6
1980,96.4,412.1
1981,89.7,397.0
1982,84.4,389.0
1983,81.4,388.9
1984,78.9,378.8
1985,76.6,375.0
1986,73.3,365.1
1987,71.8,355.9
1988,70.8,352.5
1989,67.1,332.0
1990,65.5,321.8
1991,63.1,313.8
1992,61.6,306.1
1993,62.9,309.9
1994,62.8,299.7
1995,63.3,296.3
1996,62.6,288.3
1997,61.2,280.4
1998,59.4,272.4
1999,61.6,266.5
2000,60.9,257.6
2001,58.4,249.5
2002,57.2,244.6
2003,54.6,236.3
2004,51.2,221.6
2005,48,216.8
2006,44.8,205.5
2007,43.5,196.1
2008,42.1,192.1
2009,39.6,182.8
2010,39.1,179.1
2011,37.9,173.7
2012,36.9,170.5
2013,36.2,169.8
,Infants (< 1),Children (1-14),Young adults (15-44 ),Older adults (45-64),Elderly (65+)
1900-1950,31.7,24.2,26.5,9.5,8.2
1950-1990,13.1,3.7,8,28.7,46.4
1990-2013,3,1.4,9.3,17.8,68.5
Years of Education,White male,White female,Black male,Black female,Hispanic male,Hispanic female
11 years or fewer,43.6,49.2,43.2,49.9,53.5,58.4
12 years,48.2,54,44.3,50.4,52.9,57.7
13 to 15 years,55.3,59.2,52.3,56.1,57.5,61.3
16 years or more,56.7,59.7,53.2,56.6,59,61.3

Why have deaths by infectious disease decreased since the early 20th century?

Improvements in sanitation, public health (vaccination development and delivery), and medical treatments, such as antibiotics, led to dramatic declines in deaths from infectious diseases during the 20th century.

Why have the rates of certain infectious diseases increased recently?

Climate change, rapid urbanization and changing land-use patterns will increase the risk of disease emergence in the coming decades. Climate change, in particular, may alter the range of global pathogens, allowing infections, particularly vector-borne infections, to expand into new locations.

When did infectious disease stop being the leading cause of death?

The leading causes of death in the U.S. have moved from infectious diseases in the 20th century to chronic diseases in the 21st century.

Why did death by infectious diseases drop from 1900 1950?

Disease control resulted from improvements in sanitation and hygiene, the discovery of antibiotics, and the implementation of universal childhood vaccination programs.